Joseph Kabila Engages in Talks with Opposition as M23 Rebels Advance, Posing Threat to Tshisekedi’s Leadership

Joseph Kabila, the former President of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), has reportedly initiated secretive talks with opposition leaders and civil society groups about the country’s political future. This comes at a time when rebels, backed by Rwanda, continue to capture vital territories in the eastern part of the DRC, exacerbating the nation’s already precarious security situation. These discussions are seen as a direct challenge to the current president, Felix Tshisekedi, who has been under increasing pressure for his handling of the M23 rebels’ unexpected advance into the country.
The M23 rebel group, which is believed to have the backing of Rwanda, has made significant territorial gains in eastern Congo, an area that has long been plagued by armed groups vying for control. Tshisekedi has struggled to contain the M23’s advances, and his government’s response has drawn sharp criticism both domestically and internationally. In particular, critics have accused him of failing to protect civilians in the region and of mismanaging the complex situation involving multiple armed groups.
The discussions Kabila has initiated with opposition politicians and civil society members are seen as an attempt to gain support for a potential political shift, with some speculating that Kabila might seek to challenge Tshisekedi’s leadership in the near future. The involvement of civil society groups in the talks suggests that the conversations are not just focused on political power but also on addressing broader concerns about governance, human rights, and national unity in the face of escalating violence in the east.
This development represents a significant political shift, considering the fraught history between Kabila and Tshisekedi. The two leaders initially agreed to a power-sharing deal following the disputed 2018 elections, which saw Tshisekedi declared the winner despite widespread allegations of electoral fraud. The arrangement, which was intended to ease tensions, was marked by a fragile partnership and an awkward coexistence. However, over time, Tshisekedi began to undermine Kabila’s influence, accusing him of blocking reforms and hindering progress on vital issues such as anti-corruption measures and institutional reforms.
Relations between the two men deteriorated further as Tshisekedi increasingly consolidated his control over the government. Tshisekedi’s accusations that Kabila was obstructing reforms became more frequent, and the rift between the two men deepened. The tension reached a new high when M23 rebels, who had been gaining ground in eastern Congo, moved toward Bukavu, the country’s second-largest city in the east. At the Munich Security Conference in early 2025, Tshisekedi publicly accused Kabila of sponsoring the M23 insurgency, alleging that the former president was supporting the group to destabilize the government and regain power.
Kabila, however, remained silent in the face of these accusations until February 23, when he published an op-ed in a South African newspaper. In the article, Kabila took aim at Tshisekedi, accusing him of violating the constitution, committing human rights abuses, and pushing the country toward civil war. He argued that Tshisekedi’s leadership had failed to address the root causes of Congo’s instability and had worsened the already dire situation in the east. Kabila’s criticisms were sharp and public, marking a dramatic escalation in their already strained relationship.
Privately, sources close to Kabila suggest that the former president has been equally critical of Tshisekedi’s administration. Reports indicate that Kabila has expressed to those close to him that the current regime is nearing its end. Some sources claim that he has indicated that the time for Tshisekedi’s government to fall is imminent, signaling his intent to rally opposition forces and civil society groups to create an alternative political direction for the country.
Despite the gravity of these statements, Kabila has maintained a careful distance from direct action. His public silence on the crisis in eastern Congo during the initial stages of the M23 advance has raised questions about his intentions, with some suggesting that Kabila may have been waiting for the right moment to position himself as a figure capable of addressing the instability. The recent op-ed, which directly criticizes Tshisekedi, may be an indication that Kabila is preparing to reassert his political influence in the country.
The involvement of opposition politicians and civil society members in the ongoing talks adds another layer of complexity to Congo’s political landscape. While many of these groups have long been critical of both Kabila and Tshisekedi, the current crisis in the east has united many factions in their call for a change in leadership. Civil society groups, in particular, have expressed concerns over the growing violence and the worsening humanitarian situation in the eastern provinces, where millions have been displaced due to the ongoing conflict. Many see these discussions as an opportunity to push for reforms that could stabilize the country and address the root causes of the violence.
As the situation continues to unfold, it remains to be seen whether these discussions will lead to a broader political realignment or if they will simply further fracture the already divided political landscape in Congo. Tshisekedi’s government is likely to view these talks as a direct challenge to its authority, and the coming weeks and months may determine whether Kabila can successfully position himself as a leader capable of leading the country out of its current crisis.
The stakes are high, as Congo faces both an internal political struggle and an external security threat. The M23 rebels’ advance in the east, combined with political instability in the capital, creates a volatile situation that could have significant implications for the country’s future. For now, the political maneuvering between Kabila, Tshisekedi, opposition groups, and civil society will be closely watched, with many hoping for a peaceful resolution to Congo’s ongoing crises. However, with tensions running high and no clear path forward, the situation remains unpredictable, and the fate of Congo’s leadership may soon be in the hands of those who are positioning themselves to shape the country’s future.