Europe Takes a Deep Breath as Trump Beats a Path Back to Power

As Donald Trump claims victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Europe is left grappling with a mix of anxiety, uncertainty, and cautious anticipation. After four years under President Joe Biden, whose administration prioritized transatlantic unity and multilateralism, the prospect of Trump returning to the White House has sent ripples of concern through European capitals.
Europe’s relationship with the United States, historically a cornerstone of Western diplomacy, has been defined by fluctuating dynamics since Trump’s first term. His “America First” approach, combined with skepticism toward NATO, climate change agreements, and multilateral trade deals, left a deep imprint on U.S.-European relations. As Trump now prepares for his second term, Europe is taking a collective pause, weighing how to navigate this new chapter in transatlantic diplomacy.
A Renewed Sense of Uncertainty
For many European leaders, Trump’s victory has rekindled the uncertainty that defined his first term. Under his leadership from 2017 to 2021, the U.S. saw a dramatic pivot away from international cooperation. Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, his questioning of NATO’s value, and his isolationist rhetoric challenged Europe’s vision of global stability.
While President Biden’s return to office in 2020 brought a semblance of normalcy, characterized by renewed cooperation on issues like climate change, trade, and military alliances, Trump’s comeback has now put those efforts in jeopardy. For many, Trump’s policies were seen as a disruptive force, questioning the very foundations of Europe’s relationship with the United States.
“You never quite know where you stand with Trump,” said one European diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity. “The unpredictability of his foreign policy is a challenge, not just for us, but for the whole world.”
The Impact on NATO and Transatlantic Security
Perhaps the greatest concern for Europe is the future of NATO. Throughout his presidency, Trump repeatedly questioned the alliance’s relevance and suggested that European countries were not contributing their fair share to the organization. His threats to reduce U.S. military presence in Europe unless allies increased defense spending put Europe on edge, leading many to question the long-term stability of transatlantic security.
As the war in Ukraine continues to rage, NATO’s role has become more important than ever. Biden’s administration firmly supported NATO’s efforts, committing to collective defense and military aid to Ukraine. However, Trump’s return to power raises doubts about the future of American commitment to the alliance.
“Trump’s second term will likely test NATO’s unity,” said Jeremy Shapiro, research director at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “His focus on bilateral deals and ‘America First’ policies would mean less multilateral cooperation, which could have long-term consequences for European security.”
Trade Tensions and Global Markets
Another major point of concern for Europe is the potential for renewed trade tensions. Trump’s “America First” economic policies led to the imposition of tariffs on European goods, most notably in the steel and automotive sectors, straining economic relations between the U.S. and the EU. His administration also withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and sought to renegotiate trade deals that were beneficial to European economies.
While Biden made strides toward repairing these economic rifts, a second Trump presidency threatens to resurrect these trade disputes. Europe’s economic leadership has been deeply invested in maintaining a stable trading relationship with the United States, and Trump’s mercantilist approach to international trade risks upending that stability.
“Under Trump, we saw an aggressive trade agenda that hurt many European industries,” said Fabrice Leggeri, a former EU trade official. “If his protectionist policies return, Europe will face significant economic challenges.”
Climate Change and Environmental Policy
Another area where European leaders have expressed concern is climate change. During his first term, Trump pulled the U.S. out of the Paris Climate Agreement, signaling his skepticism toward global climate action. Biden’s return to the presidency in 2020 marked a dramatic shift, as the U.S. rejoined the Paris accord and became an advocate for global environmental cooperation.
Trump’s return to power would likely see a sharp reversal on this front. His administration was notably dismissive of climate science, rolling back environmental protections and prioritizing fossil fuel industries over renewable energy. Europe, which has made significant strides toward green energy and reducing carbon emissions, fears that a Trump administration would block international climate initiatives and undermine progress on global sustainability.
“We are very concerned about the environmental impact of a second Trump term,” said Greta Thunberg, the Swedish climate activist. “The U.S. has a crucial role to play in the fight against climate change, and Trump’s policies were a setback for the whole world.”
Populist Movements and Nationalism in Europe
Trump’s victory also comes at a time when populist and nationalist movements are on the rise across Europe. His first term emboldened right-wing political leaders such as Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, and France’s Marine Le Pen, who shared Trump’s skepticism toward the European Union, immigration, and globalism. With his return to power, these leaders may gain further momentum in their push for nationalist policies that challenge the EU’s vision of unity and cooperation.
While some European leaders may welcome Trump’s victory as an opportunity to further align with populist and anti-establishment forces, others fear that his re-election could embolden the far-right and lead to greater political fragmentation within the EU.
“The populist movements in Europe will be watching Trump closely,” said Caroline Fetscher, a Berlin-based political analyst. “If Trump pushes through policies that resonate with their agendas, it could lead to more divisions and uncertainty within Europe itself.”
A Deep Breath Before the Storm
While many European leaders have already reached out to Trump to congratulate him on his victory, the underlying uncertainty is palpable. The European Union, NATO, and other international organizations will have to adjust to the reality of a second Trump term, one that is likely to be as unpredictable as the first.
“There is a sense of nervous anticipation,” said a senior EU official in Brussels. “We’ll have to adjust our strategies and be prepared for the volatility that a Trump presidency brings. But at the same time, we cannot forget the importance of transatlantic cooperation. We just have to wait and see where this new path leads.”
For now, Europe holds its breath as it contemplates the return of the man who reshaped American foreign policy and challenged the global order in ways that continue to reverberate around the world. As Trump begins his second term, Europe is bracing for another chapter in the ongoing saga of U.S.-European relations — one that promises to be as contentious, divisive, and unpredictable as ever.