Biden Approves Classified Nuclear Strategy Focusing on China, Preparing for Multi-Nation Threats

In March, President Joe Biden approved a highly classified nuclear strategic plan that reorients the United States’ deterrent strategy to address the rapid expansion of China’s nuclear arsenal. This new directive, known as the “Nuclear Employment Guidance,” represents a significant shift in U.S. nuclear strategy and preparation.
The revised strategy reflects growing concerns that China’s nuclear stockpiles could soon rival those of the United States and Russia in both size and diversity. Over the next decade, the Pentagon anticipates that China’s nuclear capabilities will substantially increase, prompting a reassessment of America’s strategic posture.
For the first time, the Nuclear Employment Guidance prepares the U.S. for possible coordinated nuclear threats from China, Russia, and North Korea. This strategic adjustment comes amid a broader geopolitical context where traditional deterrence models are being challenged by evolving international dynamics.
The document, which is updated every four years, remains so classified that it exists only in a limited number of hard copies, with no electronic versions distributed. The White House did not formally announce the approval of this strategy, but it has been referenced in recent speeches by senior administration officials.
Vipin Narang, a former M.I.T. nuclear strategist, noted that the updated guidance addresses the significant expansion and diversification of China’s nuclear arsenal. In June, Pranay Vaddi, the National Security Council’s senior director for arms control and nonproliferation, highlighted that the new strategy emphasizes the need to simultaneously deter threats from Russia, China, and North Korea.
Historically, the idea of adversaries coordinating nuclear threats to outmaneuver the U.S. nuclear arsenal was considered unlikely. However, recent developments, including joint military exercises between Russia and China and potential cooperation between Russia, North Korea, and Iran in missile technology, have altered Washington’s strategic calculations.
The evolving partnership between Russia and China, alongside North Korean and Iranian involvement in global conflicts such as the war in Ukraine, has led to a reassessment of the potential for simultaneous or sequential nuclear crises. U.S. intelligence agencies are investigating whether these nations are aiding each other’s military capabilities in a bid to counterbalance American power.
As the international security landscape continues to shift, the updated nuclear strategy aims to ensure that the U.S. is equipped to address a complex array of nuclear threats from multiple adversaries while maintaining effective deterrence and strategic stability.