China Both Hopeful and On Edge as Trump Returns to the White House

As President Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House for his second term, China is watching closely, torn between hope and apprehension. While the Chinese government recognizes the challenges and uncertainties ahead, it also sees opportunities to recalibrate its approach to the U.S. under Trump’s leadership. The prospect of a renewed focus on bilateral relations, trade, and global positioning leaves China navigating a delicate balance as it anticipates what the next four years will bring.
Under Trump’s first term, U.S.-China relations were marked by both conflict and cooperation. Trade tensions dominated the headlines, with Trump implementing a series of tariffs on Chinese goods, challenging what he described as China’s unfair trade practices. The trade war was one of the most significant aspects of the relationship, leading to economic strain and political maneuvering on both sides.
However, Trump’s approach to China was not solely combative. The U.S. leader’s “America First” rhetoric led to a broader foreign policy that emphasized strategic competition rather than cooperation, but also included moments of engagement—such as the North Korea summit and discussions on global economic issues.
As Trump nears his second term, China’s leadership is preparing for what could be a continuation of this unpredictable, yet consequential dynamic.
Despite the turbulence, Chinese officials and analysts are cautiously hopeful that Trump’s return to the White House could result in more stability, especially on trade. During the final year of his first term, Trump brokered a phase-one trade deal with China, which saw both sides agree to reduce some tariffs and encourage China to purchase more U.S. goods. For China, this deal was a stepping stone toward mitigating the economic fallout of the ongoing trade war, and it could signal that Trump’s aggressive tactics may eventually give way to more pragmatic solutions.
However, Beijing remains wary of Trump’s unpredictable style of diplomacy. While the trade agreement was seen as a win, it was accompanied by an overall hardline stance on issues like technology, intellectual property, and Chinese influence in global institutions. The U.S. president’s criticism of China’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as ongoing tensions in the South China Sea and Taiwan, have left a lingering sense of unease.
China’s leadership is well aware that Trump has often pivoted on major foreign policy issues, meaning that the same unpredictability that led to dramatic shifts in policy during his first term could persist. The question remains: Will Trump double down on his tough stance, or will he seek a more conciliatory approach as he looks to cement his legacy?
One area where the U.S.-China relationship is almost certain to remain tense is in the realm of technology and national security. During his first term, Trump targeted Chinese tech giants like Huawei and TikTok, citing national security concerns related to espionage and data security. As the Biden administration struggled to find a long-term solution to these issues, China could find itself once again on the receiving end of Trump’s rhetoric and action on tech-related concerns.
Trump’s newly signed executive orders to delay the TikTok ban and potentially restructure U.S.-based tech companies’ relationships with Chinese platforms only added another layer of uncertainty. For China, these moves reflect the ongoing technological decoupling between the two countries, which has profound implications for both global supply chains and digital diplomacy.
Beyond bilateral issues, China is also assessing how Trump’s return could impact its position on the global stage. Trump’s “America First” doctrine meant a retreat from many international agreements, including the Paris Climate Accord and the World Health Organization, both of which have been areas where China has stepped in to position itself as a leader in global governance.
In the coming years, China is likely to continue its assertive policies in the Indo-Pacific region, pushing for greater influence while managing its growing economic power. With Trump in office, Beijing will likely brace for more challenges to its global ambitions but may also find opportunities in the voids left by an America more focused on its own domestic issues.
In all, China’s approach to a second Trump administration will be a mixture of preparation and caution. On one hand, China understands that Trump’s volatile style could lead to both opportunities and challenges. On the other hand, Beijing will look to strengthen its domestic resilience, focusing on innovation, economic self-sufficiency, and expanding its influence in global affairs. The recent delay of the TikTok ban and Trump’s stance on Chinese companies show that the president-elect is not likely to back down easily, but China may well view this as an opportunity to outmaneuver U.S. pressure through its own strategic initiatives.
In the end, China’s leadership is likely to continue pursuing a dual-track approach: maintaining its stance on key issues like Hong Kong, Taiwan, and trade, while seeking to open channels of dialogue that could stabilize its relationship with the U.S. moving forward.
As Trump prepares to return to the White House, China’s leaders will remain watchful and adaptable. The two nations are locked in a complex and often adversarial relationship, and Trump’s return promises to keep the tension high. How both sides navigate this next chapter will have profound consequences not only for U.S.-China relations but for global geopolitics in the years to come.